Dynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, China

Abstract. Global warming has led to increased compound hazards, and an accurate risk assessment of such hazards is great importance urban emergency management. Due the interrelations between multiple a hazard faces several challenges: (1) evaluation level needs consider correlations drivers, (2) usually only small number data samples are available for estimating joint probability distribution drivers loss caused by (3) process often ignores temporal dynamics occurrences. This paper aims address mentioned challenges develop integrated model VFS–IEM–IDM quantify dynamic based on variable fuzzy set theory (VFS), information entropy method (IEM), diffusion (IDM). For first challenge, measures effect via use relative membership degree analyses correlation with weight method, which combined evaluate level. To second applies normal function estimate corresponding vulnerability curve. deal third assesses in different months definition probabilistic risk. In end, this takes typhoon–rainstorm disaster Shenzhen, China, as example effectiveness proposed model. The results show that effectively estimates hazards.